Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 52.4%
Defensive zone
Thornton 58.2%
Neutral zone
Thornton 63.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Thornton
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
12
(28 meetings)
16
12
Thornton
Stamkos
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
5
7
Thornton
Stamkos
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
7
3
Thornton
Stamkos
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
2
Thornton
Stamkos
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.4% (9,711)
+3.1%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
55.1% (1,709)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
49.7% (819)
+7.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,701).
Home / Away
Thornton
Stamkos
Home
55.8% (4,271)
52.7% (6,198)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
49.2% (6,067)
By Period
Thornton
Stamkos
P1
55.0%
49.1%
P2
53.3%
52.8%
P3
54.4%
50.8%
OT
56.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 02:23 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 01:08 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 01:01 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 3 | 10:39 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 8, 2017 | 3 | 04:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 8, 2017 | 1 | 07:17 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 16, 2016 | 3 | 12:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 16, 2016 | 3 | 12:37 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 16, 2016 | 3 | 09:13 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2015 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2015 | 2 | 04:42 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2015 | 1 | 17:07 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |