Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 50.1%). Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 49.5% vs Nosek 50.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 50.2%
Defensive zone
Nosek 58.5%
Neutral zone
Thornton 54.9%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Thornton
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Thornton
Nosek
Last 5: Thornton 3-2 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (583)
51.2% (377)
-2.3%
Power Play
52.5% (59)
50.0% (10)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
41.3% (46)
+17.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Thornton is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Thornton shoots left. Nosek is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Thornton
Nosek
Home
51.6% (341)
48.3% (240)
Away
47.0% (313)
52.3% (193)
By Period
Thornton
Nosek
P1
53.9%
48.4%
P2
46.9%
51.4%
P3
47.0%
50.8%
Final 5 min
52.0%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 09:23 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 1 | 05:32 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 1 | 05:06 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 1 | 09:29 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |