Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.5%). Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Bozak 53.4% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Bozak 55.4%
Defensive zone
Bozak 60.5%
Neutral zone
Bozak 55.1%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Thornton
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
23
(47 meetings)
24
23
Thornton
Bozak
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
12
12
Thornton
Bozak
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
5
9
Thornton
Bozak
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
7
2
Thornton
Bozak
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
53.7% (9,596)
-0.2%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
55.2% (1,990)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
48.0% (1,094)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Thornton
Bozak
Home
55.8% (4,271)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Thornton
Bozak
P1
55.0%
53.2%
P2
53.3%
52.8%
P3
54.4%
54.5%
OT
56.4%
52.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 03:15 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 08:41 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 05:11 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 03:34 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 11:00 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 9, 2018 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 9, 2018 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 3 | 06:04 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 2 | 16:40 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 1 | 08:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 9, 2016 | 1 | 15:19 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 09:39 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |