Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.3% vs Bozak 53.0% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 50.7%
Defensive zone
Thornton 64.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 68.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Thornton
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Thornton
Bozak
Last 7: Thornton 5-2 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
2
Thornton
Bozak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Bozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (722)
53.8% (1,244)
+4.9%
Power Play
58.5% (147)
53.1% (356)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
49.1% (175)
+2.1%
On power play, Thornton has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Thornton is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (427).
Thornton shoots left. Bozak is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,145).
Home / Away
Thornton
Bozak
Home
60.1% (496)
57.7% (892)
Away
55.8% (459)
48.6% (883)
By Period
Thornton
Bozak
P1
60.4%
54.0%
P2
54.7%
54.4%
P3
58.2%
51.0%
OT
61.5%
56.4%
Final 5 min
55.5%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 09:39 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 05:48 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 07:40 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 15, 2015 | 3 | 14:53 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 15, 2015 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |