Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.6% vs Seguin 55.0% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 63.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 59.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 61.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Thornton
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Thornton
Seguin
Last 5: Thornton 1-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Thornton
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
2
Thornton
Seguin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (577)
55.9% (789)
-4.1%
Power Play
57.7% (168)
52.1% (48)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
44.4% (9)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Thornton is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (304).
Thornton shoots left. Seguin is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Home / Away
Thornton
Seguin
Home
53.0% (379)
57.3% (382)
Away
52.9% (374)
54.1% (464)
By Period
Thornton
Seguin
P1
53.3%
55.1%
P2
50.7%
57.5%
P3
54.3%
53.7%
OT
62.5%
61.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2016 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 14:46 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 12:31 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 03:20 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |