Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.6%). Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Seguin 53.6% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 24-20 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 51.6%
Defensive zone
Seguin 68.8%
Neutral zone
Seguin 56.1%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Thornton
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
24
(44 meetings)
20
24
Thornton
Seguin
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
9
5
Thornton
Seguin
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
10
Thornton
Seguin
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Thornton
Seguin
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
53.7% (8,071)
-0.2%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
55.9% (810)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
49.3% (762)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
Thornton
Seguin
Home
55.8% (4,271)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Thornton
Seguin
P1
55.0%
52.8%
P2
53.3%
53.3%
P3
54.4%
54.7%
OT
56.4%
54.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:44 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 16:40 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 17:10 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 2 | 14:08 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 2 | 03:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 3 | 15:30 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 3 | 10:25 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 3 | 07:11 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 14:05 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 1 | 07:59 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 01:31 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 01:13 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |