Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Rask on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Rask 50.1% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Rask leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Rask 65.3%
Defensive zone
Rask 65.7%
Neutral zone
Rask 64.2%
Result
Victor Rask favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Thornton
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
11
(17 meetings)
6
11
Thornton
Rask
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rask
1
6
Thornton
Rask
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Rask
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rask
2
4
Thornton
Rask
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.0% (4,428)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
54.3% (363)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
35.2% (54)
+21.5%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Rask is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,102).
Home / Away
Thornton
Rask
Home
55.8% (4,271)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
Thornton
Rask
P1
55.0%
50.7%
P2
53.3%
48.9%
P3
54.4%
50.7%
OT
56.4%
52.1%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2019 | 3 | 11:02 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 06:22 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 1 | 04:46 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 19:39 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 19:27 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 11:24 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 00:12 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 15:34 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 08:32 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Nov 16, 2014 | 2 | 04:23 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Nov 16, 2014 | 1 | 01:05 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |