Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Rask on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.4% vs Rask 47.9% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 58.7%
Defensive zone
Thornton 72.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 66.3%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Thornton
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thornton
Rask
Last 6: Thornton 4-2 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rask
1
2
Thornton
Rask
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Rask
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Rask
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (638)
46.6% (397)
+5.9%
Power Play
57.1% (35)
58.1% (31)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
50.0% (2)
+0.0%
On even strength, Thornton has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Thornton is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Thornton shoots left. Rask is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (287).
Home / Away
Thornton
Rask
Home
54.8% (341)
50.0% (202)
Away
50.6% (334)
45.2% (228)
By Period
Thornton
Rask
P1
55.2%
51.1%
P2
56.5%
43.2%
P3
47.1%
48.5%
Final 5 min
49.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2019 | 3 | 11:02 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 06:22 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 1 | 04:46 | Offensive | Victor Rask |