Scouting Report
Joe Veleno holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 51.1% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 57.8%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 50.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 52.4%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Veleno
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Veleno
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Veleno
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (272)
48.9% (280)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
47.2% (36)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Veleno is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Veleno shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Veleno
Bjugstad
Home
49.6% (123)
48.4% (190)
Away
52.8% (178)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Veleno
Bjugstad
P1
54.8%
41.7%
P2
49.2%
56.6%
P3
52.6%
48.7%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.5%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 01:09 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 01:02 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |