Scouting Report
Joe Veleno holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Buchnevich on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 49.2% vs Buchnevich 41.5% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 60.7%
Defensive zone
Veleno 72.9%
Neutral zone
Veleno 64.4%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
Veleno
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Veleno
Buchnevich
Last 5: Veleno 3-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
2
Veleno
Buchnevich
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
1
0
Veleno
Buchnevich
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (531)
37.6% (197)
+10.8%
Power Play
56.3% (64)
50.0% (6)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
0.0% (3)
+44.4%
On penalty kill, Veleno has a +44.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Veleno is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (403).
Veleno shoots left. Buchnevich is 38.7% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
Veleno
Buchnevich
Home
48.8% (289)
43.0% (114)
Away
49.2% (333)
30.4% (92)
By Period
Veleno
Buchnevich
P1
46.1%
40.0%
P2
50.9%
35.7%
P3
49.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
52.7%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
49.0%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:11 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:55 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |