Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.3%). Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Vitale shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs Vitale 48.5% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 65.4%
Defensive zone
Vitale 68.2%
Neutral zone
Vitale 53.5%
Result
Joe Vitale favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Kelly
Vitale
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kelly
Vitale
Last 5: Kelly 4-1 Vitale
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Vitale
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Vitale
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Vitale
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
50.8% (539)
-1.1%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
40.0% (5)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
41.3% (189)
+4.2%
On power play, Vitale has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vitale shoots right. Kelly is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (210).
Kelly shoots left. Vitale is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Home / Away
Kelly
Vitale
Home
53.9% (297)
46.9% (371)
Away
42.1% (242)
49.7% (362)
By Period
Kelly
Vitale
P1
45.4%
52.9%
P2
46.1%
44.2%
P3
54.3%
47.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 11:11 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 11:50 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 14:13 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 05:32 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |