Scouting Report
Joe Vitale holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Vitale on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Vitale shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.3% vs Vitale 59.5% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 68.9%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 66.1%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 65.6%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
MacKenzie
Vitale
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
MacKenzie
Vitale
Last 7: MacKenzie 1-6 Vitale
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
0
2
MacKenzie
Vitale
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
0
3
MacKenzie
Vitale
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Vitale
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Vitale
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (377)
61.7% (274)
-6.8%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
75.0% (4)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (109)
66.7% (42)
-28.2%
On penalty kill, Vitale has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vitale shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (215).
MacKenzie shoots left. Vitale is 63.8% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Vitale
Home
51.9% (237)
69.7% (152)
Away
51.2% (260)
56.0% (168)
By Period
MacKenzie
Vitale
P1
49.7%
55.9%
P2
50.6%
65.2%
P3
53.5%
66.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
68.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
51.5%
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
62.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2013 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 2 | 10:20 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 3 | 13:37 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 3 | 13:30 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 2 | 03:13 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 2 | 03:01 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 1 | 02:31 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |