Scouting Report
Joel Eriksson Ek holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Ek wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 48.8% vs Gourde 46.0% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ek 58.5%
Defensive zone
Gourde 65.3%
Neutral zone
Gourde 55.7%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Ek
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Ek
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ek
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Ek
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (815)
47.2% (654)
+0.0%
Power Play
53.8% (266)
45.0% (20)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (180)
32.2% (87)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Ek has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Ek is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Ek shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Ek
Gourde
Home
49.9% (693)
44.1% (322)
Away
47.2% (568)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Ek
Gourde
P1
46.2%
42.4%
P2
52.6%
49.8%
P3
46.5%
44.3%
OT
54.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
48.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:18 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:10 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 05:10 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |