Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kellman on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kellman wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kellman 47.9% vs Tavares 54.9% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 71.1%
Defensive zone
Kellman 72.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 52.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Kellman
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Kellman
Tavares
Last 6: Kellman 3-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Kellman
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Kellman
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kellman
3
1
Kellman
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kellman
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (223)
54.8% (861)
-8.2%
Power Play
71.4% (7)
57.5% (226)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
51.7% (29)
-14.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Kellman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (173).
Kellman shoots left. Tavares is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (685).
Home / Away
Kellman
Tavares
Home
42.9% (126)
58.1% (559)
Away
51.8% (112)
52.4% (557)
By Period
Kellman
Tavares
P1
48.8%
57.6%
P2
53.4%
55.5%
P3
40.0%
52.0%
Final 5 min
46.4%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 01:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 1 | 07:00 | Defensive | John Tavares |