Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kellman on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kellman wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kellman 48.1% vs Tavares 54.4% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 73.9%
Defensive zone
Kellman 72.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Kellman
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Kellman
Tavares
Last 6: Kellman 3-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Kellman
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Kellman
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kellman
3
1
Kellman
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kellman
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (275)
54.0% (16,108)
-7.5%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
56.5% (4,283)
+18.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
50.6% (620)
-0.6%
On power play, Kellman has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Kellman is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (212).
Kellman shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Home / Away
Kellman
Tavares
Home
42.5% (146)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
52.4% (147)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Kellman
Tavares
P1
48.0%
55.0%
P2
53.3%
54.1%
P3
41.9%
54.1%
Final 5 min
53.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 01:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 1 | 07:00 | Defensive | John Tavares |