Scouting Report
Joel Kellman holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kolesar on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Kellman wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Kolesar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kellman 48.1% vs Kolesar 43.4% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 80.0%
Defensive zone
Kolesar 57.3%
Neutral zone
Kolesar 64.0%
Result
Keegan Kolesar favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Kellman
Kolesar
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kellman
Kolesar
Last 8: Kellman 3-5 Kolesar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
0
1
Kellman
Kolesar
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kolesar
3
4
Kellman
Kolesar
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kellman
Kolesar
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (275)
41.9% (382)
+4.6%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
50.0% (6)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
35.3% (17)
+14.7%
On power play, Kellman has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kolesar shoots right. Kellman is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Kellman shoots left. Kolesar is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Kellman
Kolesar
Home
42.5% (146)
38.2% (191)
Away
52.4% (147)
44.9% (214)
By Period
Kellman
Kolesar
P1
48.0%
42.1%
P2
53.3%
43.2%
P3
41.9%
39.3%
Final 5 min
53.0%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2021 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 3 | 00:02 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 2 | 11:45 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 1 | 07:03 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 1 | 04:23 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |