Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kellman on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kellman wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kellman 48.1% vs Sturm 56.1% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 52.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 81.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 66.3%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Kellman
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Kellman
Sturm
Last 7: Kellman 4-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kellman
3
0
Kellman
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Kellman
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kellman
1
0
Kellman
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kellman
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (275)
57.1% (2,719)
-10.6%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
61.3% (62)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
51.0% (498)
-1.0%
On power play, Kellman has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kellman is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (212).
Kellman shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Kellman
Sturm
Home
42.5% (146)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
52.4% (147)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Kellman
Sturm
P1
48.0%
56.5%
P2
53.3%
54.9%
P3
41.9%
57.4%
Final 5 min
53.0%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 03:50 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 15:11 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 10:17 | Offensive | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 05:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |