Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kellman on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Kellman wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kellman 48.1% vs Nosek 53.9% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nosek 50.6%
Defensive zone
Nosek 55.5%
Neutral zone
Nosek 52.4%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Kellman
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Kellman
Nosek
Last 10: Kellman 5-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Kellman
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kellman
3
2
Kellman
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kellman
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kellman
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (275)
55.0% (2,608)
-8.5%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
43.5% (46)
+31.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
48.6% (397)
+1.4%
On power play, Kellman has a +31.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kellman is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (212).
Kellman shoots left. Nosek is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,880).
Home / Away
Kellman
Nosek
Home
42.5% (146)
52.9% (1,606)
Away
52.4% (147)
55.3% (1,445)
By Period
Kellman
Nosek
P1
48.0%
52.5%
P2
53.3%
54.7%
P3
41.9%
54.6%
Final 5 min
53.0%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kellman
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Nosek
56.0%▬
55.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2021 | 2 | 13:36 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 01:40 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 1 | 09:27 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 3 | 08:30 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Joel Kellman |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Joel Kellman |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |