Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs MacKinnon 46.7% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.3%
Defensive zone
Ward 60.3%
Neutral zone
Ward 57.6%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Ward
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Ward
MacKinnon
Last 7: Ward 5-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
1
0
Ward
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
3
1
Ward
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ward
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,186)
46.0% (11,051)
+5.3%
Power Play
53.4% (238)
53.2% (1,394)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (366)
42.9% (499)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ward is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Ward shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,578).
Home / Away
Ward
MacKinnon
Home
50.3% (870)
49.6% (6,342)
Away
46.5% (921)
43.9% (6,603)
By Period
Ward
MacKinnon
P1
47.6%
47.4%
P2
47.5%
46.5%
P3
50.3%
45.9%
OT
30.8%
47.7%
Final 5 min
45.4%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2018 | 2 | 15:49 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 12:34 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Joel Ward |