Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.8%
Defensive zone
Ward 65.0%
Neutral zone
Ward 60.1%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 59.9%
59.9%
40.1%
Ward
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Ward
MacKinnon
Last 7: Ward 5-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
1
0
Ward
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
3
1
Ward
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ward
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,186)
46.1% (11,218)
+5.2%
Power Play
53.4% (238)
53.3% (1,412)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (366)
42.8% (502)
-7.3%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ward is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Ward shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Ward
MacKinnon
Home
50.3% (870)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
46.5% (921)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Ward
MacKinnon
P1
47.6%
47.4%
P2
47.5%
46.6%
P3
50.3%
46.1%
OT
30.8%
48.4%
Final 5 min
45.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2018 | 2 | 15:49 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 12:34 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Joel Ward |