Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.5% vs Bergeron 59.7% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bergeron 67.8%
Defensive zone
Bergeron 82.7%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 68.4%
Result
Patrice Bergeron favored at 76.9%
23.1%
76.9%
Ward
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Ward
Bergeron
Last 5: Ward 3-2 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
1
Ward
Bergeron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
3
0
Ward
Bergeron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
1
Ward
Bergeron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (59)
60.5% (1,394)
-13.0%
Power Play
52.3% (44)
64.0% (300)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (24)
53.7% (255)
-16.2%
On penalty kill, Bergeron has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Ward is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (29).
Ward shoots right. Bergeron is 60.6% vs right-shot opponents (716).
Home / Away
Ward
Bergeron
Home
44.9% (69)
62.0% (949)
Away
50.0% (58)
58.6% (1,002)
By Period
Ward
Bergeron
P1
45.7%
59.2%
P2
39.5%
63.9%
P3
56.3%
57.0%
OT
0.0%
68.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
47.2%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
60.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2015 | 3 | 16:34 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 8, 2015 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 14:55 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 13:40 | Defensive | Joel Ward |