Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 48.5%). Look for Ward on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs Nash 48.5% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nash 52.6%
Defensive zone
Nash 52.6%
Neutral zone
Nash 52.4%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Ward
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Ward
Nash
Last 5: Ward 5-0 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
3
0
Ward
Nash
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
1
0
Ward
Nash
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ward
1
0
Ward
Nash
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,186)
48.7% (4,621)
+2.6%
Power Play
53.4% (238)
51.0% (249)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (366)
44.9% (550)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Nash has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Ward is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Ward shoots right. Nash is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (1,674).
Home / Away
Ward
Nash
Home
50.3% (870)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
46.5% (921)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
Ward
Nash
P1
47.6%
49.0%
P2
47.5%
47.9%
P3
50.3%
48.0%
OT
30.8%
68.4%
Final 5 min
45.4%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2013 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 03:10 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 2 | 01:35 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 10:38 | Neutral | Joel Ward |