Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.4%
Defensive zone
Ward 52.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Ward
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Ward
O'Reilly
Last 10: Ward 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Ward
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
3
1
Ward
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Ward
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,186)
56.2% (15,260)
-4.9%
Power Play
53.4% (238)
58.8% (3,445)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (366)
51.4% (2,811)
-15.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Ward is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,320).
Ward shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Ward
O'Reilly
Home
50.3% (870)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
46.5% (921)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Ward
O'Reilly
P1
47.6%
55.6%
P2
47.5%
57.0%
P3
50.3%
55.1%
OT
30.8%
62.2%
Final 5 min
45.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2017 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 2 | 06:03 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |