Scouting Report
Shawn Horcoff holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ward wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs Horcoff 51.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Ward leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Horcoff 76.9%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 64.7%
Neutral zone
Horcoff 77.4%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 72.6%
27.4%
72.6%
Ward
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Ward
Horcoff
Last 10: Ward 7-3 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
3
1
Ward
Horcoff
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ward
Horcoff
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ward
3
0
Ward
Horcoff
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (353)
51.2% (537)
-1.9%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
66.7% (15)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (98)
47.3% (74)
-12.6%
On penalty kill, Horcoff has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Ward is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (338).
Ward shoots right. Horcoff is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Home / Away
Ward
Horcoff
Home
48.4% (219)
52.5% (343)
Away
47.8% (274)
49.5% (283)
By Period
Ward
Horcoff
P1
43.0%
48.2%
P2
51.4%
52.2%
P3
50.0%
52.7%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.8%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.1%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 16:20 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 1 | 17:21 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 1 | 00:35 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 10:19 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Joel Ward |