Scouting Report
Shawn Horcoff holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs Horcoff 49.6% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Ward leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Horcoff 70.8%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 64.2%
Neutral zone
Horcoff 64.1%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Ward
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Ward
Horcoff
Last 10: Ward 7-3 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
3
1
Ward
Horcoff
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ward
Horcoff
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ward
3
0
Ward
Horcoff
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,186)
50.6% (3,133)
+0.7%
Power Play
53.4% (238)
51.4% (555)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (366)
43.0% (567)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Horcoff has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Ward is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,320).
Ward shoots right. Horcoff is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,303).
Home / Away
Ward
Horcoff
Home
50.3% (870)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
46.5% (921)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
Ward
Horcoff
P1
47.6%
48.2%
P2
47.5%
49.5%
P3
50.3%
50.9%
OT
30.8%
51.9%
Final 5 min
45.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 16:20 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 1 | 17:21 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 1 | 00:35 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 10:19 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Joel Ward |