Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Larsson 46.9% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Larsson leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larsson 73.4%
Defensive zone
Larsson 92.1%
Neutral zone
Larsson 85.1%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 84.2%
15.8%
84.2%
Matthews
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Matthews
Larsson
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Larsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
2
Matthews
Larsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
4
Matthews
Larsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
46.7% (345)
+9.6%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
61.1% (18)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
39.0% (59)
+11.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Larsson is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Home / Away
Matthews
Larsson
Home
60.7% (572)
52.1% (167)
Away
52.4% (657)
42.4% (255)
By Period
Matthews
Larsson
P1
60.3%
50.0%
P2
55.6%
46.7%
P3
53.3%
42.6%
OT
45.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:45 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:40 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:14 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 19:00 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 12:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |