Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 53.5% vs Larsson 51.0% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 65.9%
Defensive zone
Larsson 76.8%
Neutral zone
Larsson 56.1%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Ryan
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Ryan
Larsson
Last 9: Ryan 4-5 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Larsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
2
Ryan
Larsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
3
Ryan
Larsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (54)
51.3% (696)
+9.8%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
56.3% (32)
-16.3%
On power play, Larsson has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (46).
Ryan shoots right. Larsson is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (275).
Home / Away
Ryan
Larsson
Home
61.5% (26)
51.1% (356)
Away
57.6% (33)
51.1% (403)
By Period
Ryan
Larsson
P1
70.8%
54.6%
P2
50.0%
51.9%
P3
52.9%
46.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
59.3%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 17:11 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 05:14 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 2 | 03:59 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 1 | 15:27 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 1 | 12:22 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |