Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larsson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 50.6% vs Barzal 42.8% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 89.0%
Defensive zone
Larsson 89.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 52.8%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Larsson
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larsson
Barzal
Last 5: Larsson 2-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
3
Larsson
Barzal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (773)
41.9% (516)
+11.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
40.0% (60)
-40.0%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (218)
25.0% (4)
+14.9%
On power play, Barzal has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Larsson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (356).
Larsson shoots left. Barzal is 38.1% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Larsson
Barzal
Home
51.2% (490)
46.9% (303)
Away
50.1% (503)
35.7% (277)
By Period
Larsson
Barzal
P1
50.6%
39.9%
P2
53.1%
45.1%
P3
48.3%
39.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.8%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
50.7%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 06:07 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |