Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.2% vs 46.3%). Look for Larsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larsson wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 46.9% vs Barzal 46.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 70.7%
Defensive zone
Larsson 67.4%
Neutral zone
Barzal 51.5%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Larsson
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Larsson
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
1
Larsson
Barzal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Larsson
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (345)
46.6% (483)
+0.1%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
40.9% (22)
+20.2%
On power play, Larsson has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Larsson is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (156).
Larsson shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Larsson
Barzal
Home
52.1% (167)
49.6% (242)
Away
42.4% (255)
43.3% (263)
By Period
Larsson
Barzal
P1
50.0%
42.4%
P2
46.7%
49.5%
P3
42.6%
47.7%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 02:08 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 01:43 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |