Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larsson wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 48.4% vs Barzal 42.9% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 51.2%
Defensive zone
Larsson 90.5%
Neutral zone
Larsson 85.2%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Larsson
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Larsson
Barzal
Last 5: Larsson 4-1 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
1
Larsson
Barzal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (506)
40.7% (514)
+7.7%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
58.3% (24)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
50.0% (10)
-5.1%
On even strength, Larsson has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Larsson is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Larsson shoots left. Barzal is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (392).
Home / Away
Larsson
Barzal
Home
51.9% (335)
43.0% (279)
Away
44.4% (333)
40.1% (269)
By Period
Larsson
Barzal
P1
48.7%
41.2%
P2
48.3%
46.4%
P3
48.1%
37.1%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
48.2%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 04:50 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 07:45 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 03:29 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |