Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 49.5% vs Duchene 54.1% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Larsson leads 22-14 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 93.4%
Defensive zone
Larsson 50.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 73.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
Larsson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
14
(36 meetings)
22
14
Larsson
Duchene
Last 10: Larsson 7-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
5
Larsson
Duchene
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
10
4
Larsson
Duchene
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
8
5
Larsson
Duchene
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (4,382)
53.9% (10,396)
-3.4%
Power Play
47.7% (153)
56.9% (1,665)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (714)
49.1% (468)
-5.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larsson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,402).
Larsson shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Larsson
Duchene
Home
51.2% (2,493)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
48.0% (2,756)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Larsson
Duchene
P1
51.6%
54.5%
P2
49.7%
54.5%
P3
47.2%
53.4%
OT
52.3%
56.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 09:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 18:06 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 04:48 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 16:51 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 00:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2 | 07:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2 | 08:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2 | 07:48 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 08:29 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 17:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 3 | 00:27 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |