Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Larsson wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 46.9% vs Duchene 52.8% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 89.0%
Defensive zone
Larsson 76.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 58.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Larsson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Larsson
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larsson
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (345)
46.9% (162)
-0.2%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
73.2% (56)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (59)
100.0% (2)
-61.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +61.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larsson is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Larsson shoots left. Duchene is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Larsson
Duchene
Home
52.1% (167)
58.4% (125)
Away
42.4% (255)
48.4% (95)
By Period
Larsson
Duchene
P1
50.0%
56.9%
P2
46.7%
52.5%
P3
42.6%
51.9%
OT
50.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 09:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 18:06 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |