Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larsson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 45.4% vs Duchene 52.0% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larsson 57.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 69.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Larsson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Larsson
Duchene
Last 8: Larsson 4-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larsson
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Larsson
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (290)
52.6% (1,081)
-7.4%
Power Play
38.6% (44)
49.6% (119)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
41.2% (17)
-12.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larsson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (212).
Larsson shoots left. Duchene is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (744).
Home / Away
Larsson
Duchene
Home
45.1% (153)
54.9% (625)
Away
43.1% (188)
49.3% (592)
By Period
Larsson
Duchene
P1
45.3%
52.7%
P2
41.4%
54.1%
P3
44.0%
49.5%
OT
60.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
38.6%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
44.0%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2015 | 2 | 09:49 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 13:36 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 13:16 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |