Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.2% vs 47.3%). Look for Larsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 48.4% vs Backlund 47.6% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 73.1%
Defensive zone
Larsson 73.8%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Larsson
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Larsson
Backlund
Last 8: Larsson 6-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Larsson
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
3
0
Larsson
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
0
Larsson
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (506)
47.3% (630)
+1.1%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
48.5% (66)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
46.3% (82)
-1.4%
On power play, Larsson has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Larsson is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (447).
Larsson shoots left. Backlund is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
Home / Away
Larsson
Backlund
Home
51.9% (335)
50.4% (347)
Away
44.4% (333)
44.8% (431)
By Period
Larsson
Backlund
P1
48.7%
46.7%
P2
48.3%
44.9%
P3
48.1%
49.8%
OT
0.0%
58.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
48.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 19:14 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 06:32 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 12:31 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |