Johan Larsson vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 49.5% vs MacKinnon 46.7% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 24-18 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 80.6%
Defensive zone
Larsson 70.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Larsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
24
(42 meetings)
18
24
Larsson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Larsson 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
9
Larsson
MacKinnon
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
6
5
Larsson
MacKinnon
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
8
10
Larsson
MacKinnon
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (4,382)
46.0% (11,051)
+4.5%
Power Play
47.7% (153)
53.2% (1,394)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (714)
42.9% (499)
+0.9%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Larsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,367).
Home / Away
Larsson
MacKinnon
Home
51.2% (2,493)
49.6% (6,342)
Away
48.0% (2,756)
43.9% (6,603)
By Period
Larsson
MacKinnon
P1
51.6%
47.4%
P2
49.7%
46.5%
P3
47.2%
45.9%
OT
52.3%
47.7%
Final 5 min
49.4%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:36 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 14:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 17:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2021 | OT | 03:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 15:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 3 | 16:47 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 3 | 04:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 1 | 09:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2021 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |