Johan Larsson vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 49.5% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 24-18 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 81.5%
Defensive zone
Larsson 68.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 53.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Larsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
24
(42 meetings)
18
24
Larsson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Larsson 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
9
Larsson
MacKinnon
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
6
5
Larsson
MacKinnon
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
8
10
Larsson
MacKinnon
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (4,382)
46.1% (11,218)
+4.4%
Power Play
47.7% (153)
53.3% (1,412)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (714)
42.8% (502)
+1.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Larsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Larsson
MacKinnon
Home
51.2% (2,493)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
48.0% (2,756)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Larsson
MacKinnon
P1
51.6%
47.4%
P2
49.7%
46.6%
P3
47.2%
46.1%
OT
52.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
49.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:36 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 14:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 17:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2021 | OT | 03:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 15:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 3 | 16:47 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 3 | 04:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 1 | 09:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2021 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |