Johan Larsson vs Nathan MacKinnon
2021-22 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.2% vs 45.4%). Look for Larsson on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Larsson wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 46.9% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.2%
Defensive zone
Larsson 59.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Larsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larsson
MacKinnon
Last 6: Larsson 3-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Larsson
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
3
2
Larsson
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (345)
45.8% (755)
+0.9%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
48.3% (60)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (59)
27.6% (29)
+11.4%
On power play, Larsson has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larsson is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (156).
Larsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Larsson
MacKinnon
Home
52.1% (167)
49.5% (396)
Away
42.4% (255)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Larsson
MacKinnon
P1
50.0%
50.2%
P2
46.7%
43.8%
P3
42.6%
41.4%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:36 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |