Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larsson wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 53.9% vs Bjugstad 50.8% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 58.6%
Defensive zone
Larsson 82.6%
Neutral zone
Larsson 66.0%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Larsson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larsson
Bjugstad
Last 6: Larsson 4-2 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larsson
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
1
Larsson
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (509)
46.9% (194)
+7.9%
Power Play
36.4% (11)
59.2% (103)
-22.8%
Penalty Kill
54.6% (119)
0.0% (1)
+54.6%
On penalty kill, Larsson has a +54.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Larsson is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Larsson shoots left. Bjugstad is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Larsson
Bjugstad
Home
57.5% (301)
47.7% (149)
Away
51.8% (338)
54.4% (149)
By Period
Larsson
Bjugstad
P1
54.8%
44.0%
P2
49.1%
53.5%
P3
60.0%
53.3%
Final 5 min
60.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
54.5%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2018 | 1 | 13:10 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 3 | 18:45 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 2 | 08:57 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 10, 2017 | 1 | 11:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |