Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larsson wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 46.9% vs Bonino 51.2% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larsson 51.1%
Defensive zone
Bonino 51.1%
Neutral zone
Bonino 55.8%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Larsson
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larsson
Bonino
Last 6: Larsson 3-3 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
1
Larsson
Bonino
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larsson
Bonino
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Larsson
Bonino
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (345)
51.7% (777)
-5.0%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
60.0% (50)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (59)
43.9% (98)
-4.9%
On even strength, Bonino has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Larsson is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Larsson shoots left. Bonino is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Larsson
Bonino
Home
52.1% (167)
48.2% (461)
Away
42.4% (255)
54.5% (464)
By Period
Larsson
Bonino
P1
50.0%
54.1%
P2
46.7%
49.7%
P3
42.6%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 16:19 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 09:56 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 3 | 06:42 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 28, 2021 | 2 | 11:47 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |