Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larsson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 45.4% vs Gaustad 55.9% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larsson 97.0%
Defensive zone
Larsson 70.4%
Neutral zone
Larsson 81.0%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Larsson
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Larsson
Gaustad
Last 10: Larsson 2-8 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Gaustad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
5
Larsson
Gaustad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
3
Larsson
Gaustad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (290)
57.7% (821)
-12.5%
Power Play
38.6% (44)
56.3% (16)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
52.3% (260)
-23.7%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Larsson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (212).
Larsson shoots left. Gaustad is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Home / Away
Larsson
Gaustad
Home
45.1% (153)
58.9% (577)
Away
43.1% (188)
53.7% (520)
By Period
Larsson
Gaustad
P1
45.3%
53.1%
P2
41.4%
57.9%
P3
44.0%
57.8%
OT
60.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
38.6%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
44.0%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2015 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 3 | 05:49 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 3 | 03:05 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 2 | 05:42 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 12:40 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 3 | 05:05 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |