Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Larsson wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 46.9% vs Carpenter 51.2% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larsson 68.2%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 53.8%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 55.6%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Larsson
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Larsson
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
2
Larsson
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (345)
53.2% (299)
-6.5%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
33.3% (3)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (59)
46.5% (86)
-7.5%
On power play, Larsson has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Larsson is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (156).
Larsson shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Larsson
Carpenter
Home
52.1% (167)
54.6% (207)
Away
42.4% (255)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Larsson
Carpenter
P1
50.0%
52.3%
P2
46.7%
51.5%
P3
42.6%
50.8%
Final 5 min
55.2%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:21 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 18:32 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |