Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larsson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 50.6% vs Kesler 55.2% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 57.1%
Defensive zone
Larsson 92.2%
Neutral zone
Larsson 75.6%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Larsson
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Larsson
Kesler
Last 8: Larsson 2-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
4
Larsson
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Kesler
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
2
Larsson
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (773)
55.7% (741)
-1.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
67.0% (100)
-67.0%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (218)
50.0% (204)
-10.1%
On power play, Kesler has a +67.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Larsson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (356).
Larsson shoots left. Kesler is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Home / Away
Larsson
Kesler
Home
51.2% (490)
52.5% (522)
Away
50.1% (503)
58.9% (523)
By Period
Larsson
Kesler
P1
50.6%
56.7%
P2
53.1%
56.8%
P3
48.3%
54.1%
OT
50.0%
16.7%
Final 5 min
49.8%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
50.7%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 3 | 15:19 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2 | 02:56 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |