Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 49.5% vs Kesler 55.9% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 57.8%
Defensive zone
Larsson 76.3%
Neutral zone
Larsson 57.6%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Larsson
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Larsson
Kesler
Last 10: Larsson 2-8 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
6
Larsson
Kesler
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
1
Larsson
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
6
3
Larsson
Kesler
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (4,382)
56.4% (8,095)
-5.9%
Power Play
47.7% (153)
60.7% (1,437)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (714)
50.5% (1,908)
-6.7%
On power play, Kesler has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Larsson shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Larsson
Kesler
Home
51.2% (2,493)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
48.0% (2,756)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Larsson
Kesler
P1
51.6%
56.5%
P2
49.7%
55.9%
P3
47.2%
56.1%
OT
52.3%
46.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 3 | 15:19 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2 | 02:56 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 02:36 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 09:32 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 06:28 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 03:51 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 18:45 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 18:32 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |