Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 49.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 31-25 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.1%
Defensive zone
Larsson 80.9%
Neutral zone
Larsson 66.6%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Larsson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
31
(56 meetings)
25
31
Larsson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Larsson 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
19
Larsson
O'Reilly
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
13
5
Larsson
O'Reilly
18 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Larsson
O'Reilly
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (4,382)
56.2% (15,260)
-5.7%
Power Play
47.7% (153)
58.8% (3,445)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (714)
51.4% (2,811)
-7.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larsson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,402).
Larsson shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Larsson
O'Reilly
Home
51.2% (2,493)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.0% (2,756)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Larsson
O'Reilly
P1
51.6%
55.6%
P2
49.7%
57.0%
P3
47.2%
55.1%
OT
52.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2021 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 18, 2021 | 1 | 05:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 18:29 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 09:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2021 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 11:36 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 04:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 13:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 09:13 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 04:23 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:32 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 2 | 03:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 09:36 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |