Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Larsson wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 46.9% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.0%
Defensive zone
Larsson 53.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 54.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Larsson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larsson
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Larsson
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (345)
56.6% (1,064)
-9.9%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
60.4% (260)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (59)
54.0% (261)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larsson is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Larsson shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Larsson
O'Reilly
Home
52.1% (167)
54.9% (801)
Away
42.4% (255)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Larsson
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
58.0%
P2
46.7%
56.7%
P3
42.6%
55.4%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2021 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 18, 2021 | 1 | 05:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |