Scouting Report
John Mitchell holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Mitchell on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fraser wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 47.8% vs Mitchell 49.8% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 59.1%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 53.2%
Neutral zone
Fraser 59.4%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Fraser
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Fraser
Mitchell
Last 5: Fraser 2-3 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
0
1
Fraser
Mitchell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
1
2
Fraser
Mitchell
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Mitchell
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (160)
45.9% (231)
-0.3%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
52.2% (67)
+22.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
65.2% (46)
-15.2%
On power play, Fraser has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Fraser is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (123).
Fraser shoots left. Mitchell is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Home / Away
Fraser
Mitchell
Home
49.5% (95)
59.0% (134)
Away
42.5% (73)
43.8% (210)
By Period
Fraser
Mitchell
P1
42.6%
48.0%
P2
48.1%
49.2%
P3
49.1%
50.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
44.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 19:24 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 15:26 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 13:15 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | John Mitchell |