Scouting Report
John Mitchell holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Mitchell 50.8% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mitchell 65.4%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 79.6%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 78.9%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Stepan
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Stepan
Mitchell
Last 9: Stepan 6-3 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Mitchell
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Mitchell
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mitchell
1
2
Stepan
Mitchell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
51.2% (666)
-7.7%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
45.5% (22)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
48.9% (47)
-5.9%
On even strength, Mitchell has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Stepan is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (812).
Stepan shoots right. Mitchell is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Stepan
Mitchell
Home
45.6% (629)
51.7% (360)
Away
42.5% (603)
50.1% (375)
By Period
Stepan
Mitchell
P1
44.7%
50.2%
P2
43.7%
49.4%
P3
43.9%
51.9%
OT
40.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 12:02 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 11:09 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 16:27 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |