Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mitchell 51.0% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mitchell 60.1%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 81.4%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 67.0%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Mitchell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Mitchell
Hertl
Last 6: Mitchell 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Mitchell
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Mitchell
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mitchell
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mitchell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (2,965)
53.8% (8,268)
-2.0%
Power Play
54.1% (196)
59.3% (1,975)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (401)
46.3% (806)
-2.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mitchell is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,298).
Mitchell shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Mitchell
Hertl
Home
54.4% (1,806)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
47.6% (1,756)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Mitchell
Hertl
P1
52.0%
53.6%
P2
49.9%
54.1%
P3
50.9%
55.3%
OT
69.2%
46.5%
Final 5 min
51.4%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2016 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 3 | 19:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 1 | 01:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 12:24 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |