Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Paquette wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 46.8% vs Tavares 50.6% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.0%
Defensive zone
Paquette 87.6%
Neutral zone
Paquette 67.4%
Result
Cedric Paquette favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Paquette
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Paquette
Tavares
Last 9: Paquette 2-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
6
Paquette
Tavares
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paquette
1
0
Paquette
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Paquette
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (347)
48.7% (1,202)
+0.3%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
59.3% (305)
-30.7%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (80)
47.9% (121)
-12.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +30.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Paquette is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Paquette shoots left. Tavares is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
Paquette
Tavares
Home
42.3% (182)
52.1% (841)
Away
48.8% (252)
49.0% (787)
By Period
Paquette
Tavares
P1
51.3%
52.2%
P2
46.1%
50.7%
P3
40.3%
49.7%
OT
50.0%
37.9%
Final 5 min
41.9%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
46.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2016 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 2 | 17:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 2 | 17:22 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 2 | 14:24 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 1 | 18:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |