Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs Tavares 52.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 59.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 87.9%
Neutral zone
Kelly 61.6%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Kelly
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kelly
Tavares
Last 6: Kelly 1-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Kelly
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Kelly
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
52.4% (1,121)
-2.7%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
51.3% (304)
-22.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
58.8% (17)
-13.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Kelly is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Kelly shoots left. Tavares is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (911).
Home / Away
Kelly
Tavares
Home
53.9% (297)
56.5% (731)
Away
42.1% (242)
47.8% (711)
By Period
Kelly
Tavares
P1
45.4%
56.1%
P2
46.1%
50.3%
P3
54.3%
50.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2015 | 1 | 13:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2015 | 3 | 14:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 3 | 09:49 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2 | 18:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 1 | 18:44 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |