Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Backes wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 54.2% vs Tavares 52.1% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 83.2%
Defensive zone
Backes 72.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Backes
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Backes
Tavares
Last 9: Backes 3-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Backes
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
1
Backes
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Backes
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (822)
52.4% (1,121)
+2.1%
Power Play
58.9% (141)
51.3% (304)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (167)
58.8% (17)
-7.3%
On power play, Backes has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Backes is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Backes shoots right. Tavares is 50.3% vs right-shot opponents (531).
Home / Away
Backes
Tavares
Home
55.3% (524)
56.5% (731)
Away
54.0% (606)
47.8% (711)
By Period
Backes
Tavares
P1
53.2%
56.1%
P2
54.2%
50.3%
P3
57.1%
50.5%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 12:02 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 10:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 1 | 15:26 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 1 | 11:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 2 | 14:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 1 | 10:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 1 | 05:00 | Defensive | David Backes |